By: johny.squash
26/09/2008
11:28 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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a few people have told me the media have made the crisis worse than it really is and it will soon blow over. one of them a former econonmy analyst
I'm in between and not really sure
what do you think |
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By: mark.dobson@xtra.co.nz
30/09/2008
5:58 am Yahoo! Profile:
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Hey this financial crisis is a reality!!! The unfortunate thing is that like all crises the good get dragged down by the bad. In this case we need to be prepared to tighten the old belt and batten down the hatches cause she's gonna be a bumpy ride for at least the next 12 months. Little old NZ all the way down under is caught up cause our banks are all linked into the global banking system and it is this sysytem that is and will continue to come under pressure.
The media often do make things worse than they relly are with the angel they take on a story. IN this case the damage has already been done by greedy institutions and now the rest will have to ride out the s!#* storm. |
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By: nathanandchieko@xtra.co.nz
30/09/2008
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| hi john, i wouldnt trust an economy analysts they don't have a clue whats going on, whats going to be next and what the real effects will be. they all contridict each other. all the subprime mortgages will disclosed within the next 12-18 months, currently no one really knows how many of them are out there. im guessing for at least the next 12-18 months she will be a bumpy ride for the world economy, i like to be optimistic and think after that things will start to come right. hopefully in years to come we will forget about this crisis and it wont be a big deal, but right now i think its pretty huge. |
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By: kings_guards
30/09/2008
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THis financial crisis is real... very real... but HELEN and Michael have saved us from it...AS MUCH AS CAN BE EXPECTED..
SO...thank you Helen and Michael and Winstone and the rest of the parliamentarians who have supported this government... thank you...thank you...thank you...
This is the type of chrisis we would have worn the full brunt of if JOHN KEY'S policies and philosophies had been in place...as in government...
this financial chrisis is as a direct result of corporate greed and recklessness with other peoples money...of the John Key type... the 'free market' type... as in the winner take all... the loser goes down the tubes... unless you happen to be the USA... i.e. John Keys mates...his team... of financial barons...
where the 'looser'...after having robbed investors blind... get the tax payers to bail them out... and have to rely on the good old enemy...CHINA... to bail them out also...!!!
what a scream...!!!!
This is the ultimate end result of NATIONAL'S capitalist policies... the ultimate result of the vision of the BUSINESS ROUND TABLE...
the beast is totally bled... the greedy are totally fed... and have fled the dying beast...
So who is left to stop the rotting carcas from smothering those who were robbed... none other than...those who were robbed of course...!!!
SO LET US HEAR MORE OF JOHN KEY'S WISDOM OVER THE NEXT FEW WEEKS...MORE OF JOHN KEY'S BIG BORROWING IDEAS...MORE OF JOHN KEY'S IDEA TO SELL KIWI BANK... AND THE RAIL... AND ANYTHING ELSE HE HOLDS SHARES IN...AND THEN LET US VOTE ...
HELLOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!! !!!! look who wants to be let loose in the lolly shop...
...and who gets to lick the lollipop...???!!!! |
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By: kings_guards
30/09/2008
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johny squash.. regardless of what people say... best way to analyse this for yourself is to close your ears...and not listen to the commentary... use your eyes and just watch the scoreboard...
USA requires a trillion dollar bail out... that is real...
Wall street has just taken the biggest daily plunge in it's history... that is real...(while NZSX took a 5% blip!!)
several major financial institutions have collapsed... that is real...
something has gone horribly wrong...
key players are down all over the field...
they have called for the ambulance... but it hasnt turned up... it has run out of bandages... and gas...
these are unprecedented events... and an uprecedented scoreline at the beginning of the game...
Therefore... no one knows what the final score shall be...
but we can all see where the score is at right now... and I think we can all see that this game ain't about to turn around...
there is a great big cliff at the end of the field where the ball is heading...
there is no ambulance at the bottom of this cliff...
there is no antidote...
there is no oxygen...
there is no blood...
there is only the smell of burning rubber... from the mercedes that are fleeing the car park of the members stands...
the scoreboard is flashing... A NEW WORLD RECORD IS ABOUT TO BE SET....!!!!
BUT THANKFULLY...we did not play in that game... why... because HELEN TOLD US NOT TO....
Thank you Helen and Micheal... again... thank you...thank you... thank you... that we are not going to be a part of that record...
JOHN KEYYY WHOOOOO?????!!!!!!
BYE BYE JOHN......... |
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By: avi8or8
30/09/2008
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| Time to get off the dope kings guard. |
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By: bwmotors@xtra.co.nz
6/10/2008
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| Lolly pop?... I think you've been sucking Helens lolly pop there champ! She's been the one that's been in the skippers chair for the last 9 years! |
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By: dazal@xtra.co.nz
9/10/2008
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doesnt look like the labour govt has done much better.I see Michael Cullen has really let this country down with some of his decisions,one the decision to increase interest rates when the dollar was strong and again dropping the interest rate once uncertainty hit.
With the debarcle of Helen and Mr Peters how can you say the labour party has done a great job on things.I see the dollar was only worth .58 to the Us today after been 0.82 three months ago.What happened to the excess of tax payers money in the last six months, from 2bn to a deficit. |
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By: drum.bass@xtra.co.nz
6/11/2008
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Ok so Kings Guard is obviously on a Crusade here, this debate really isn't about government, it's about business, lending and capital.
The Reality is that the Crisis in a global sense is very real. We are lucky in NZ though that so much of our industry works well in a recessionary environment (exporters etc).
We are also lucky too that our banks are strong and we don't have too much capital remaining invested in Sub-Prime financial assets. In retrospect, and I know this sounds a little harsh, the collapse of the Finance companies in New Zealand is probably going to work in the NZ economies favour. We are too small to deviate too much from the traditional financial models. We see house prices are still holding pretty well considering, although a good description of the market would be cautious (despite Gareth Morgans rantings).
The simple answer is to do what you can. If you are trying to move in the real estate market - buy and sell in the same market and you shouldn't be too affected. The banks are still lending, and will be at competitive rates.
We are lucky to live in NZ, as it's a small, financially pretty sound, Insular country.
One thing that should concern us a little is the rise in Unemployment over September. |
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By: profwmandrews1
13/11/2008
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| There is a better way to produce a Financial system that can produce a sound Business for all countries and all people. Instead of massive greed that drives our economies to these types of conditions every ten years. The only bennifit from the current system is a few mega rich people that hordes the money and leaves us all with uncertain times and a failing Health care system's and institutions.( Un-Healthy stressing times for all ) |
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By: brad.stansell@xtra.co.nz
18/11/2008
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| I do understand that there is a very serious financial crisis going on, but I do also feel that if it wasnt reported on so heavily in the media, that people might not freak out about it as much, and they would continue spending there money as normal? |
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By: madaxe01
21/11/2008
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| good grief people are SO gullible..like oil prices the biggest American con Job Ive ever seen, millions jumped an panicked an sold stock an shares by fear....nothing happened ...other than you lost your stock an the millions an millions of lost interest by premature ejectulation...the b..tards |
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By: stevewbright
26/11/2008
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Absolutely real. Here is what is going-on:
Banks lent money on subprime paper which was considered subprime or alt-A because the borrower did not provide full documentation, had too high debt to income (DTI), too poor credit or so on. Many borrowers bought homes in which they thought they could refinance in a few years and get out of the ARM (adj. rate before it reset). These loans were packaged and securitized to be sold to investors (eg. insurance companies and banks) while rating agencies made assumptions (really bad ones) on which bonds would be AAA and which would be investment grade. Some bonds were made into CDO's -- subprime paper becomes AAA if the majority of all losses flow through to the other bonds in the CDO structure. Sort of insulate the higher CDO from having poor ratings or being exposed to losses.
Enter the banks and insurance companies which buy it based on the credit rating and view that the housing market is not going to collapse. What drives losses in mortgages is really home price appreciation -- if a borrower is late, the lender can push them out of the home and sell it for a higher price but in a deperecating market the lender takes a charge to their books for all losses (say 50% after fees, attorneys, pay taxes, etc).
Buyers begin to dry-up as home prices become way too high and rates begin to reset on stuff from 5 years ago. Now these people are trying to sell and others with rate resets are trying to sell. Prices begin to fall as builders continue to over build.
Prices fall, mortgages lose money, those that bot the stuff begin to realize it is unsafe and begin to sell. Banks/Insurance companies which require assets to back their deposits/policies begin to collapse because the assets are now worth less as the prices fall (mark-to-market accounting). |
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By: stevewbright
26/11/2008
3:46 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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part 2
Now that banks/insurance companies have this on their books so do those selling it to them. Their ratios begin to fall and equity falters causing the stock prices to fall. Holders of their CDS (credit default swap) make money while the other side (sellers of the CDS) begin to lose money which destabilizes their balance sheet. Investors begin pulling money out which causes debt convent ratios to kick-in and force them into default. Or runs on the bank such as Bear. Banks fail because the assets are worth 50% of what they paid for them and can't raise capital fast enough -- this is why they keep asking for more cash or going to the markets to sell stock --- to raise cash to back deposits/policies and increase equity.
Banks can't lend because they don't have capital. They stop lending, stop doing overnight agreements which often help fund company payrolls or daily borrowing. Cost of funds go up as these solid companies are now having to borrow to make payrol or pay thier note today in expectation of receiving cash tomorrow. But the increase in rates means they can do less projects moving forward/less cap ex.
Now solid companies are feeling the pinch too. Some companies have ARS (auction rate securities) in which the market has dried up completely and 30 to 90 day paper has become 20year plus paper with no buyers. This was their short-term cash and now is long-term investment...now requires the company to lay people off since they have less cash and current assets to continue the business.
Layoffs push unemployment higher (duh!) and this slows consumer spending. Consumer spending is roughly 70% of the market. Consumers stop buying, companies begin to slow down and lay more people off. Circular arguement and now trouble with the basic solution requiring "priming of the pump" like you would a dry well.
Stocks fall because expectations fall. Too many lemmings on wall street and they turn all at the same time. Banks need capital, hencse the TARP. |
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By: stevewbright
26/11/2008
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part 3.
This was the short version and I can absolutely tell you that the world economy was very close to freezing up. While this began in the US, Spain, Britain, and other countries that allowed a boom to go uncheck and regulations to be side-stepped, it would have brung down the entire globe worse than this if money was not thrown at the problem. Yea, $4-5 trillion US dollars is a lot...and it can be problematic in the currency markets but it wont be. Simple reason it is not inflationary or problematic is because this problem is SOOO widespread, the slowdown has curtailed inflationary fears and this spending is necessary to prevent deflation.
Anyone arguing that this is "not real" has their head stuck in a jar and lost the oxygen awhile back. |
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By: jed2367
27/11/2008
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stevewbright - Very interesting and straightforward reading for most people to understand.
I would also be interested in your predictions in relation to the global credit markets during the next 18-24 months?
Many thanks if you take the time to respond. |
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By: zpw@xtra.co.nz
30/11/2008
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| if you believe in the media you are an idiot. turn the tv off and work it out for you're self. |
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By: profwmandrews1
14/12/2008
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| Well until I see Laura Bush standing George on his head on Lou Dobbs Cnn, drawing qaurters out of his rear with BBQ Tongs for walmart shopping money. I will agree with you! Keep up the good reports! |
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By: mike_f596
19/12/2008
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aint it tho ! i have a feeling if the media did an about turn and started reporting that the financial crises is over and things are great .. things will improve immediately
simply because people perceive them to be improving and will respond accordingly lol |
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By: mark.hoppy@xtra.co.nz
20/12/2008
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Your right on the mark agree 100%. Saying that we should tighten up will only make things worse!!!!. Most of us are still employed now, are earning as much or more than last year, so why stop spending, hoarding cash only makes things worse AND exposes yourself to loss due to the dollar value. Spend now why you are able to enjoy it, I say.
I dont care what share prices do, physical assets are still physical assets no mater what the value of them are. A peanut butter factory will still sell peanut butter if people dont stop buying it. peanut butter workers will still be employed. If the share price falls, who cares? We should be looking at making money from profit from sale of peanut butter and not out of paper investments from sale of the shares, I reckon. |
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By: smuts666
27/12/2008
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Thanks to the 'bean counters' and so called 'auditors' we have seem many thousands of people lose investments. Members of these two professions have been signing of the bad decisions of directors.
Then comes the lawyers who have know all the long how shonky the deals were!
This is not like Y2K or Global Warming. This is real pure greed.
Something that proves the worthlessness of our university education that creates such worthy professionals.
Were was the ethics, where was the knowledge of right and wrong, where was the honesty and integrity?????
Muldoon was right about New Zealand being the "last frontier for the financial sharks" He predicted the BNZ failure and the Labour socials selling off the state assets paid and owned by all kiwis!
We never learn and more, much more misery of on the way - we have two years before the full impact is felt by every family.
So the thieves and their professional advisors need to be stripped of their gains and tossed into jail doing hard labour!
Who will have the guts to do this????????????????? |
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By: nzsirhc
29/12/2008
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| Hi you should take a look at projectcamelot.org written by benjamin fulford on financial history...really quite interesting. |
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By: tonys06@xtra.co.nz
1/01/2009
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The crises is summed up in my innocent little joke.
A six year old boy walked into his mothers kitchen with a new dog. He declared, Hi Mummy, what do you think of my ten million dollar dog? His mother asked dismayed, Where did you get ten million dollars to buy your dog?
The innocent six year old replies ,I swapped it for my two five million dollar cats. SEE KIDS CAN EXPOSE OUR FINANCIAL PARASITES BETTER THAN US. |
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